Global recovery slows in November, but optimism for the year ahead surges higher

The global economic recovery hit a speed bump in November, as rising COVID-19 infections led to a renewed slowing of business activity. The JPMorgan Global PMI™ (compiled by IHS Markit) edged down from 53.3 in October, its highest since August 2018, to 53.1. While the PMI has now indicated expanding business activity for five successive months, reflecting a rebound after the pandemic caused an unprecedented collapse in the second quarter, the November data reveal a slight waning in the pace of that recovery.

The slowing in the global expansion in part reflects some cooling of initial lockdown rebounds, but also came at a time of renewed waves of virus infections in many countries, which have in turn led to increased lockdowns. IHS Markit’s COVID-19 Containment Index has risen from 32 in September to 37 in November, though notably remains well below levels seen earlier in the year (during tighter lockdowns). The hit to global GDP from the pandemic in Q4 consequently looks considerably less severe than seen earlier in the year